3 Cats Stalking

Win-Win: Fuel, not Food

I read a news release from the National Chicken Council, and saw reference to releases from the equivalent Pork and Beef organizations, suggesting there should be a study into the tradeoffs between using corn for fuel and food. The meat industry is worried.

Already the wholesale price of chicken has gone up 6% because of rising corn prices. Ethanol is competing with Buffalo Wings and chicken tenders. And Bush wants to triple ethanol production from corn. Guess what -- the price of meat from those animals that feed on corn is going up. And the price of other grains will rise as cropland is converted over to raise more corn.

Wow, this is great! A real Win-Win situation.

Think of this. It takes over 10 calories of grain to produce 1 calorie of meat. By raising the price of meat until it is out of the price range of most people, market forces will cut the consumption of meat -- drastically. All we have to do is use the corn to produce ethanol instead of meat and let the market forces rule.

And as background, wild fishing stocks are being depleted (estimated to disappear by 2050), so a meal of fish will soon become rare. Of course, the fish farms also use grains to feed their stock, so their prices should climb as well. Ultimately, that should reduce consumption of fish, leaving more grain available for ethanol or other uses.

The Department of Agriculture reports that the US grain reserve is expected to drop to zero this year, and Australia has quit exporting grain. Unfortunately, we still have 800 million people who have insufficient food in the rest of the world (I am hesitant to describe them as starving -- I have no personal experience with them). They will have even fewer food supplies available. But we can help save them by eating less meat. Again, a Win-Win situation.

I am not sure what will happen to the price of tofu, made from soy beans. There is a growing biodiesel industry, and they really like soybean oil as their feedstock.

Vegetarians, arise. Your time is coming, that is if there is any grain left for you to eat.

BTW, does anyone know how much corn is required to make corn likker? Is that threatened, too.

Yeah, team,
sam

Resource Depletion -- faster than you think

The earth is flat, right? If it were flat, it could go on and on, forever.

FACT: the earth is round, a sphere in space orbiting our sun. We live on the surface of that sphere where we find all the land, water, food, and fuel that is available to us. There is only so much of those resources available to us, at least on this earth.

Less than 500 years ago, when there were only 1,000,000 people living on earth, it seemed like the world was flat and resources were infinite.

Today there are 6,500,000,000 human beings on earth, and in less than 45 years, in 2050, it is estimated there will be 8,900,000,000. We are rapidly learning that the resources we need are finite. In fact, we are already running out of some.

FACT: we have used 1.2 trillion barrels of petroleum pumped from beneath the surface since 1870 when the oil boom started, and estimates are that from 1.2 to 3.8 trillion barrels remain.

Some interpret that to mean there is not a problem for now, but demand is growing at 2% per year. A simple calculation shows that the supply could be exhausted sometime between 2035 and 2070, assuming we can get all that oil out as fast as we need it -- UNLESS we find some way to lower our demand for fuel, or we find some other source of fuel.

Some are concerned with the Peak Oil effect, where supply suddenly drops while demand continues to climb. They expect this will destroy the world's economy. Many spend their time worrying about just when Peak Oil will occur.

FACT: almost all the tillable land in the world is in use today, except for the rain forests of the Amazon River basin. In the past 30 years, by using industrial agriculture, extensive irrigation, genetic modification, and high-strength fertilizers made from petroleum and natural gas, crop yields have been brought to near their maximum.

Two trends are working to reduce the amount of available land. Sea levels are rising and some portion of the rich coastlands where many crops are raised will disappear. The increase in population must live somewhere, and farmland is being converted into urban areas at a fantastic rate. Expect food supplies to be under more stress in the future.

FACT: as a result of years-long drought in Australia, the country in 2006 became a net importer of grain after being the world's fourth largest exporter five years ago. This year in the United States corn reserves are expected to be exhausted as demand for ethanol rises, along with the price for pork and poultry.

According to UNESCO, there are 800 million people in the world starving today. Some of this is a distribution problem, but there is also a limited supply of food. How do we feed the 2.4 billion increase in the next four decades?

FACT: at the current rate of over-fishing, ocean supplies of seafood will largely disappear by 2050.

FACT: freshwater supplies around the world are drying up. For example, the Ogallala Acquifer used to irrigate crops in western Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota is being exhausted. Glaciers in the Himalayas supplying water to China and India are disappearing. Over 1.5 billion people in the world do not have access to sanitary, potable water.

These are but a few of the indications that the resources we always thought were there are fast disappearing. And when you add in the effect of climate change, some resources will disappear even faster. Our account is already overdrawn -- how can we stop the drawdown?

THINK: Conserve, Practice Efficiency, End Over-Consumption, Teach Others How To Make A Difference. Move one pebble at a time. It will add up.

I apologize for the lack of references. I will add them in time.