3 Cats Stalking

Nature Does Not Wait

Mankind continues to work his havoc on his/her environment, civilization, and society, and the dangerous consequences or our actions (and inactions) are looming larger and larger.

But Nature seems to be unaware or not care of what we are doing to ourselves. Natural events that we call disasters add to the misery of many around the world.

Last week a monstrous cyclone ripped into the delta region of Myanmar (Burma), and the floods of the storm surge reportedly killed over 30,000. The question now is will emergency aid arrive soon enough to keep disease and starvation from doubling and redoubling that toll.

Over the weekend the worst US tornado season in years continued, killing more than a score of people in northeast Oklahoma, southeast Missouri, and Georgia.

The latest event was a 7.8 magnitude earthquake near Chengdu in southwest China, one of the most populated areas of the country. Tens of thousands are dead, and injuries are mounting. The news reports sound so much like visions from my books Memphis 7.9 and Broken River on what an earthquake that size would do to the middle of the United States on the New Madrid Fault.

We cannot prevent natural disasters -- we can only react. But we can do something about those disasters we are bringing upon ourselves -- we can mitigate the damage. 

Sam Penny
the Prudent RVer

 

Wither the Price of Oil

It has been a while since I have used this blog to talk about the state of the world. Much has changed since last July. for one thing, all my estimates for the price of a barrel of oil were way off. Today the stuff was over $123 per barrel.

Of course, the "value" of the dollar is down compared to nearly a year ago, as compared with the Euro, yen, and other major currencies. But oil has climbed more than the dollar has fallen.

There are those who say it is only a matter of time before oil prices crumble, and the price stabilizes down near $70 or so. Those people simply cannot imagine that the talk about demand beating out supply could really be happening, and that the result could be a continuing rise in the real price of oil.

Now Goldman-Sachs is actually talking about the possibility of $150 per barrel oil, and some pundits are pushing it to $200 or $300. The main stream media (MSM) and the powers that be (TPTB) are finally waking up to reality -- this awful tipping point some radicals have been talking about could really be happening!!

So we will see -- where will the price go? I need to think about that. Will the world indeed come to its senses and see we need to plan for the problems we are facing? I need to think about that, too.

More later.

Sam Penny
the Prudent RVer

A Tipping Point

I think we have passed a "Tipping Point" with respect to global warming and the potential scarcity of fossil fuels.

A week ago global warming was not really happening and we essentially had no "energy" problem, at least according to some in the mainstream press and the concensus from the White House.

Now, after the State of the Union speech, it appears to be acceptable to discuss what should be done about global warming (though there are still some nay-sayers who deny its existence vehemently), and it is now public policy that we must do something about the "energy" problem to protect our national security.

Maybe the leaks from the IPCC report due out in a week and the leaks from the Dems in Congress have influenced the shift. In any case,  I believe this Tipping Point is truly significant and represents a real change in the paradigm.

In my case, I will cease trying to convince people that global warming is a problem and fossil fuels (from certain places) represent a risk. After all, those are givens -- just ask GW.

Now my big effort can be summed up in the message: LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT! Let me tell you how, let me teach you, now pay attention, because we agree these things are going to happen, and we all need to know what to do. Right?

The IT of concern is the effects of what is happening. Temperatures and sea-levels will rise, storms will be worse, fuel will be more scarce, etc. etc. etc. I can talk about the best case scenarios and the mid-case scenarios and the worst-case scenarios, and ask the audience: HOW DO YOU LIVE WITH THAT? DO YOU KNOW?

The nice thing is that this is a positive message rather than a negative message. That does a lot to get me out of my psychological frump. No, we are not all going to die (though undoubtedly some will), but life as we know it is going to change. Now get ready.

Hee, Hee. This is going to be fun.  sam

Kissinger agrees about war in Iraq

Henry Kissenger published a piece  on 19 Jan entitled "The New Iraq Strategy" in the Khaleej Times Online (of all places??) discussing the US strategy in Iraq. He states in part

"... under present conditions, withdrawal is not an option. American forces are indispensable. They are in Iraq not as a favour to its government or as a reward for its conduct. They are there as an expression of the American national interest to prevent the Iranian combination of imperialism and fundamentalist ideology from dominating a region on which the energy supplies of the industrial democracies depend."

The emphasis is mine. Go to the full article for the complete details.

Whether or not the US public or President or Congress don't like to talk about it, I believe it is vital to our interests to be out front with why we are in Iraq. Only then can we make a rational decision about the need to stay there.

It may be brutal, but it is the truth. sjp

Why Are We Fighting In Iraq?

This morning on Meet the Press, John McCaine and Ted Kennedy argued for and against Bush's surge strategy. It seems to me that they both "missed" the point of why to select that particular strategy and focused on the politics of the situation.

Most in the US now agree that the previous strategy of Bush/Rumsfeld of “staying the course” has not worked and will continue to not work [probably because of inept and unimaginative leadership]. There is strong disagreement about why it did not work and how to correct the course.

I have heard nobody discuss why we are really in the Middle East, fighting this war. I cannot believe the two gentlemen today do not understand. I am amazed at the solid front to ignore (and even hide from view) our primary reason for being there.

So what is the primary reason for our Middle East involvement? Oil.

But first, here are some reasons that are NOT the primary basis for our involvement.

Bringing democracy to the region is sometimes given as a primary reason. There are some idealists who believe democracy in and of itself is sufficient. They are like those who believe all those Muslims should be converted to [their brand of] Christianity. They are only right in that a "democracy" might make it easier to accomplish their primary goal. Turning them into fundamentalist Christians would be a disaster.

Stopping terrorism from developing in the region is the focus of some people, but IMHO the risks from terrorists is orders of magnitude less than the risks associated with our primary reason for involvement.

Preventing WMDs is often held up as our goal, and we have been sucked in by that fear in the past. There are other ways to tackle proliferation that offer a better chance of success.

There is a strong contingent in the US who feel the primary goal is to protect Israel. There are also others who say that is important, but what they really want is a proxy for the US in the Middle East to do our dirty work, if needed.

Why is oil the primary reason for the Iraq war?

The United States lifestyle is based on having access to and using 25% of the world's consumption of petroleum. The only place in the world where we can get that supply in the quantity we need it is the Middle East. We are fighting this war to protect and enlarge our control of that supply.

If you start with an understanding that oil is what drives the war, some conclusions on what to do stand out.

Bush was correct a year ago. America is addicted to oil. Did he say we should break that addiction? I don't remember. He hasn’t really come up with any good ideas on how to do that.

Rational analysis of where things are going with respect to resource depletion, climate change, and over-population indicates [AT LEAST TO ME] that we must decrease our use of fossil fuels QUICKLY, BUT IN AN ORDERLY FASHION. We must do things here at home to conserve and reduce our consumption, but we don't want some Arab in the Middle East dictating to us how fast we break our gas guzzling habits.

The solution is to take control of the oil-producing regions by whatever is the most efficient method. And to determine the most efficient methods, you have to clear the table of all those other reasons people give for being in Iraq. Focus on controlling the oil.

We should surge the troops sufficiently to gain control of Iraq. Twenty-one thousand seems low. We should see that a "friendly" government is installed and in control of the country. A pseudo-democracy may be best, but consider using a strong man who is willing to keep everyone happy and come down hard on those who object, and those who want to play terrorist.

We should continue our support of Israel as our "enforcer" in the area. At the same time, we should kick Israel’s butt if they keep trying to expand and ferment trouble with their neighbors. Why? Because they are a nuclear power with the resolve and resources to go after any other major violator of the "peace." They need to keep a low profile.

We should negotiate with everyone in the Middle East, including Iran and Syria, and make our position clear. Negotiation does not mean capitulation, but it does mean finding ways to get through and around issues of disagreement. We will help Middle East countries with their goals in the region (except for destroying Israel), but they have to provide us with oil. Included in this help will the rebuilding of their oil fields for enhanced recovery to extend the supply.

BTW, a thing to keep in mind is that Russia is coming on strong in the area of energy control and will be in competition with us in the Middle East. They are a major antagonist.

We should make sure the Middle East countries understand that the US is striving to wean itself from its addiction, but that activity will not mean the end of our need for their products. It will give them the opportunity to build their internal markets, and they will be the last to have the oil reserves as they run out.

Where will we be in a year? If we have not made progress in bringing to the forefront the real reason for fighting the Iraqi war, we will still be stumbling along in the dark looking for a strategy that will work and get us out. We will have lost another year.