Last November 12, 2012, the International Energy Agency released its 2012 edition of the World Energy
Outlook. and generated a cacophony of statements ranging from "how great it is" to "forecast unrealistically high" and many opinions in between.
A key conclusion of the report was that "Oil Production" would approach 100 million barrels per day in 2035, the United States would be the world's largest oil producer by around 2020, and North America will become a net oil exporter by around 2030. Those who claim we have no resource problems offered the report as proof of their claim.
A number of well-respected analysts and bloggers commenting through TheOilDrum and in other venues have disagreed with the conclusions of the IEA report on different, often technical, grounds and expressed concerns with some of the basic assumptions used to build the report.
The article "What future for petroleum?" by Marco Pagani in Cassandra's Legacy offers one of the most clear and concise analyses of the WEO study. First, the key measure is "net energy," and not
volumetric production. This reduces the 2035 comparison to today to about 70 million barrels per day (equivalent). The peak of about 74 million barrels per day (equivalent) is still before us, in 2015.
Second, the estimates used in the study for the rate of production decline in existing wells and in the newer tight shale oil and gas plays are significantly overly optimistic. As Thomas Hedges points out in his article "The Natural Gas Bubble" at Truthdig.com, reserves from existing wells are declining at up to 70 percent per year, and current data shows that natural gas production is essentially unreliable. Production declines in shale oil show a similar precipitous drop.
Using more believable decline rate for shale sources, Pagani shows a graph that predicts only 40 million barrels per day (equivalent) in 2035, and the peak was 65 million barrels per day (equivalent) in 2005.
As Pagani says, "What to say? From 100 million barrels, we arrive to about 40; if we make preparations for this future, perhaps we'll be able to face it, but if we keep the rosy colored glasses of IEA, we might well be running towards catastrophe."
BTW, 2035 is only 22 years away. sam
Outlook. and generated a cacophony of statements ranging from "how great it is" to "forecast unrealistically high" and many opinions in between.
A key conclusion of the report was that "Oil Production" would approach 100 million barrels per day in 2035, the United States would be the world's largest oil producer by around 2020, and North America will become a net oil exporter by around 2030. Those who claim we have no resource problems offered the report as proof of their claim.
A number of well-respected analysts and bloggers commenting through TheOilDrum and in other venues have disagreed with the conclusions of the IEA report on different, often technical, grounds and expressed concerns with some of the basic assumptions used to build the report.
The article "What future for petroleum?" by Marco Pagani in Cassandra's Legacy offers one of the most clear and concise analyses of the WEO study. First, the key measure is "net energy," and not
volumetric production. This reduces the 2035 comparison to today to about 70 million barrels per day (equivalent). The peak of about 74 million barrels per day (equivalent) is still before us, in 2015.
Second, the estimates used in the study for the rate of production decline in existing wells and in the newer tight shale oil and gas plays are significantly overly optimistic. As Thomas Hedges points out in his article "The Natural Gas Bubble" at Truthdig.com, reserves from existing wells are declining at up to 70 percent per year, and current data shows that natural gas production is essentially unreliable. Production declines in shale oil show a similar precipitous drop.
Using more believable decline rate for shale sources, Pagani shows a graph that predicts only 40 million barrels per day (equivalent) in 2035, and the peak was 65 million barrels per day (equivalent) in 2005.
As Pagani says, "What to say? From 100 million barrels, we arrive to about 40; if we make preparations for this future, perhaps we'll be able to face it, but if we keep the rosy colored glasses of IEA, we might well be running towards catastrophe."
BTW, 2035 is only 22 years away. sam
