One of my favorite blogger check-spots is Crash-Watcher. He searches in much the same subject area as I, but he has taken the time to build on concepts and theories presented for future scenarios and thus make some firm statements about how he thinks the world will look in the next 20 or so years. I believe his thoughts and conclusions are worth considering.
Most recently he has done a 5 part series looking at regional petroleum consumption patterns following Peak Oil, which he concludes happened about 2007 for the world. He has incorporated the concept of the Export Land Model into his analysis, and from my reveiws, he is closer to what may really transpire than most.
Of course, there are still those that swear that Peak Oil is fantasy and we will always have a supply -- though they are agreeing it may cost more than we can afford. My experience and scientific education just do not lead me to that conclusion. So I vote that CW is correct in assuming that Peak Oil is happening, and we need to look at its effects early rather than wait.
I suggest this as your afternoon reading plan.
First learn how he approaches the problem. Take a look at Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 1 Introduction and Method
Next CW looks at production in the major supply areas of ME, AF and AP (Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific) in his article Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 2 Regional production, consumption and export trends for ME, AF and AP. In particular, he is concerned with their rising internal needs for the petroleum they are producing. This reduces their exports at a faster rate than expected (the ELM).
He next considers the other areas of the world where consumption is king, but there may also be some production. These are EU, FS, SA, and NA (Europe, Former Soviet Union, South America, and North America). Read Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 3 Regional production, consumption and export trends for EU, FS, SA and NA.
At this point in his series he has shown that though these last four areas produce some petroleum, they are are truly dependent upon imports from the first three for survival.
His fourth article considers how and when the exporting of petroleum from the producers to the consumers ends. One of his first conclusions is that President Obama's goal as stated in his March 30 speech will be a slam dunk. Obama said, "So today, I'm setting a new goal: one that is reasonable, achievable, and necessary. When I was elected to this office, America imported 11 million barrels of oil a day. By a little more than a decade from now, we will have cut that by one-third." If the trend for declining exports continues, President Obama may get his wish of cutting exports by one-third without having to do anything at all. You can read that article at Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 4 future global net export trends.
In Part 5 Predicting regional petroleum consumption in a post-export world CW puts down some dates for us in the more advanced parts of the world to watch. He predicts that consumption of petroleum (imports and local production) in Europe will go to zero in 2030. Africa will experience much the same fate. North America will be down 50% from today's consumption levels and falling to only 10% by 2080.That does not mean those areas have no energy supplies, they will just not be petroleum.
So learn how the future may unfold. Happy reading.
Sam Penny, the Prudent RVer
