3 Cats Stalking

How Do You Say "Cut One-Third in the Next Decade"

President Obama called for a one-third reduction in oil imports over the next decade. He said nothing new and left a lot to assumption and speculation.What he did not say is important to note.

First, his proposed one-third reduction in oil imports will happen. Not because we will decide to do it, but because we will have no choice. The product will not be there for us to import, at least at the price we are willing to pay.

He implied that there would be alternatives available to take up the slack. Conservation and conversion to electrical power for transport would be one alternative. Wrong -- it is not an alternative, it is an imperative. Otherwise, we don't move things around in this country, and that includes raw materials and food.

Nuclear power will remain a requirement. Yep. If you want a steady supply of power in the near term, it will have to come from nuclear, with much support from coal and natural gas. In the long run, solar and wind and other forms of renewable energy will become increasingly important. Namely, that will be because the availability of anything else will drop so drastically those sources are left in control.

Unfortunately, the Republican response was typically political, and they added nothing to helping the situation in this country. They are part of the old guard, and they show it.

At some point the politicos will realize that they are faced with the fact that this country must learn how to get along on less power than we are currently using. We can do it by staring into the oncoming headlights until the truck runs us over, or we can start to work developing a plan on how to live with life as it will be in the near future -- a time with a lot less power available.

My advice is that you don't wait for the politicos to face reality. Get yourself into a mode where you can survive with much, much less energy available. Be creative now, while you still can. Time is running out.

sam

Congnitive Dissonance

I had a good conversation with my brother-in-law last night after his delightful serving of his Spaghetti a la Michael along with a pleasant bottle of Merlot.

Michael is a very experienced clinical psychologist who also does evaluations of criminal defendants for the courts. He evaluates the people who will be appearing in court and offers his professional opinion on such matters as compatency, suicidal tendancies, etc.

Many of those evaluations are for people who are "unable to care for themselves" but who still have the legal rights to a fair trial. Michael says he experiences Cognitive Dissonance in doing this work. He wants the work because it supports his business, but he still harbors some resentment that some people are unfairly taking advantage of the system (my words, not his).

Wikipedia says Cognitive Dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously.

Michael also suggested that some of my feelings about trying to explain my concerns about the future of our society to people who don't seem to care or are in a state of denial are related to the same kind of problem. I have a concern if it really makes any difference and if I should really care. At times I just don't want to give a damn.

I need to think more on this aspect of doing things for people who don't seem to care.Should I even bother?

sam

 

The Biggest Cat-Fight Yet

In my last post I bemoaned the fact that the Nature Cat was rearing her head with the awesome earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Now we are watching the Nuclear Cat come into the fray. It has become the biggest cat-fight yet.

I am not sure our society will survive this cat-fight very well. In fact, I expect this month to be remembered as the worst month in the history of the earth, until an even worse month comes along.

Folks, things are very rapidly going from bad to worse, even faster than our governments and other agencies can respond. It is time to start preparing, but I don't yet understand how to prepare myself.

We have a nuclear catastrophe in Japan, and it may spread radiation at some level around the globe. While that contamination will be a problem, I believe the impact of the catastrophe will be felt in the economic arena even worse. As a result of the economic fallout, people will starve or die of thirst or be caught up in riots and revolutions.

The earthquake and tsunami were terrible, and some are estimating that nearly half a million may have perished in the natural disaster. But that was a localized occurance. Pity the poor who live there now, for they are without power and food and water. But they are a small portion of the population of Japan, a miniscule fraction of the population of the earth.

But our society has been built on more and more complexity and now runs on the principal that all parts must work, and work right. When major supply lines go down, other operations stop. The Chevy truck plant in Louisiana shut down because they cannot get a component from Japan because the electrical power supply there is not sufficient to keep industry going. That is just a start. More will come, and at some point society will realize they are screwed, and then they will panic. I can only guess how bad the results may be. They will not be nice.

I will try to focus in future posts on what to do now, how to survive, how to build an attitude that you can live with. For now, I want to curl up in my hole and sleep, maybe for 20 years or more.

sam

 

Another cat came on the scene

Last Friday a monster earthquake, now estimated at magnitude 9.0, struck in the subduction zone just to the west of the northern part of Japan. 250 miles of the fault ruptured as the Pacific plate pushed 18 feet or so under the Japanese Archapelago. Some places on the coast moved as much as 8 feet from their former GPS positions.

The tsunami that struck the coast in as little as five minutes after the rupture destroyed many coastal cities, and the TV and Internet footage showing that destruction are truly awesome.

This is Nature at her worst, or best, depending upon your perspective. In any case, the images are truly  breathtaking.

So we have a fourth cat, Nature, that we must contend with. Before I was only talking about resource depletion, climate change, and over-population. But now we must also contend with Nature, and what Mother Earth can do to us.

The impact of this event will last for years. Japan is already in trouble with its economy and energy situation, and now it will get worse. The drag on the rest of the world will be horrendous. Though there are some who are celebrating the fact that the price of oil dropped (because Japan in unable to take delivery on some of its purchases -- the ports are effectively closed in some areas), the longer term impact will be a requirement for more energy, for more fuel, as they try to repair the damage.

I believe this will bring in the time when we have more problems. We are going downstream, now the current is flowing even faster. There is a great waterfall ahead.