I live in a small community of RVers in the high desert region of southern California. RVers are people who generally live in, or at least use, a rolling home, either pulled by a pickup truck or containing a motor so it can drive itself (called a motorhome). There are about 290 retired families (some single) here. We are 14 miles from the nearest services: groceries, fueling stations, restaurants, general stores, and medical services. It is quiet and beautiful.
Our community functions largely on volunteerism. Every one does something to help. It may be repairing the roads, serving ice cream, cutting weeds, tending the irrigation system, and working on the Board and various committees to bring a semblance of order to our collective efforts. Part of my volunteerism is to study various risks to our community and way of life. I have looked at earthquakes and climate change and some economic risks. My latest request was to look at the risks regarding fuel availability and costs. What risks do we face in the next five years, and how may we mitigate them?
I have been studying Peak Oil and other resource depletion issues for the past five years. I see a growing consensus that Peak Oil has happened and within a few years (maybe by 2015) the USA will begin to see the effects of a world-wide diminishing production rate for fossil fuels. This consensus includes the IEA and the US Military. Of course, there are also those who say we will never be faced with a problem of diminishing resources -- but with my task I still have to consider what is the risk if those optimists are wrong.
There are two primary effects to be considered: supply and demand for fossil fuels. Best estimates at this point are that production supplies will be decreasing by 2% per year by 2015. At the same time, while demand in the USA is constant or maybe decreasing slightly, demand from China, India, and other developing countries is increasing at nearly double digit rates. Somebody in the world is not going to get the supplies of fossil fuels they want without paying big-time for it.
The nature of the world supply system is that shortages of fuel will develop in some locations. It will probably develop first in some of the poorer developing countries, but it could be here in the USA. We could find some day that at least a few fueling stations hang a sign out that says their tanks are empty until further notice. For example, this could be the knock-on effect of some oil tanker being diverted from the local refinery in Long Beach and sent to China because they will pay more for the oil.
If fuel shortages become a persistent problem, expect rationing. Our society must have fuel for the fire trucks and EMTs. Other vital services like food transportation will get priority. Ride sharing will again become fashionable. (I remember the shortages back in the 70s.) Sorry, RVers may the at the bottom of the totem pole. The people in my community should plan on filling their fuel tanks during times when fuel is available so they can still move when fuel is in short supply.
And there is the matter of cost. Here is southern California we are currently paying $3.40 per gallon for diesel, over $3 for unleaded. That is with the world price of oil at $89 per barrel. If demand keeps growing like everyone wants it to (it's called a recovery), the oil price could climb to over $100 per barrel, and the cost at the pump for diesel and unleaded could climb to over $5 per gallon.
In Europe the price of fuel is already over $5 per gallon equivalent, so we know society can live with that, but the lifestyle is very different. For one thing, they do not have so many RVs. They find other ways to get around.
People in my community should expect to see lifestyle changes. We must car-pool into town to shop; we must order more things over the Internet and have them delivered to us; we must look into grocery delivery services; maybe we should buy a community van. As RVers we will probably not travel so much and will stay at home more of the time. Of course, that means we are here during the hot summer and will use more electricity for air conditioning. The overall cost for maintaining our community will increase because we must use fuel to get some things done.
And by the way, if the cost of fuel goes up, expect the cost of electricity to go up as well. But that's another set of problems.
So you see some of the changes we have to look at, and they will probably start within the next five years. 2015 may be a very interesting year of adjustment.
sam
