I have a dilemma. My intellectual background is rooted in the American educational system. I learned early to listen to what the experts had to say and to believe. Since my own field of expertise became physics and engineering and computer science, I have developed a strong bias to believing the world is what the other engineers and physicists and computer scientists say it is. The educational level and experience of the 'experts' in those physical sciences matter.
My dilemma is that when I try to apply the rules of intellectual expertise to other disciplines, too many times I cannot trust those other experts. Take for instance, economics, where self-proclaimed experts in that field comment on the physical world of which I have long-time experience. Too much of the time their background and education levels in economics does not seem to be correlated with an understanding of the real world. So, after 70-plus years of trying to bridge the gap between soft-science experts and physical-science experts, I have concluded that the majority of economists in particular believe in a web of pseudo-science that allows them to ignore the fundamentals of the physical world. They are too often following the teachings of someone from long ago who did not have the oppportunity to consider the limits of the world we now live in.
My dilemma really hurts when I discuss issues of energy supplies with other physical scientist/engineers who apparently have complete faith in the conclusions of the economic experts.
Most of the current economic theory is based upon an assumption of limitless resources. Therefore, they can forecast limitless growth. But in the physical science of medicine, we know that when the bacteria in a petri dish consume all the food there is, they all die. The explosive growth of the colony of bacteria ensures its demise.
There are a few mavericks in the economic arena who are working on theories of how an economy survives when there are limits on growth, and their studies will soon become most important. Until then, I don't trust most of the economic experts who tell the world there is nothing to worry about on the future of energy supplies.
It goes by several labels, but the one I learned about a few years ago was Peak Oil. Now it is upon us.
