3 Cats Stalking

On "Hollow Men of Economics"

When I began this blog in January, 2007, I saw 3 Cats (three catastrophes) facing the human race: Climate Change, Resource Depletion, and Over-Population. By 2008 another catastrophe had crept in and something terrible afflicted the economy. The housing bubble burst and a debt crisis spread throughout the the financial structure. Markets plummeted. The cost of oil spiked to unprecedented heights, and the price of housing and commercial real estate fell. Politicians brewed their magic potions to make everything right, and economists poured forth explanations and suggestions of what to do, but the economy just got worse. A new Cat had been born.

So now there are 4 Cats on the scene, but I am not sure what to call this newbie or even what it really is. For now I'll name it Kitty-Cat. Like the kitty in a poker game, it has to do with what you expect to win in life. 

The root cause for Kitty-Cat is that too many in our society (I will call those people the ME-MEs) have come to believe they deserve to win it ALL, even at the expense of those less fortunate than they, even at the expense of their neighbors, even at the expense of their country, even at the expense of their progeny and the following generations.

But our capitalist society demands that the ME-MEs find a way to "pay" for all that stuff; the stuff is not free. The ME-MEs chose to use DEBT, a means of payment that has been around for ages.

The real break-through came along when ECONOMISTS appeared on the scene and developed theories of economics that said growing DEBT would be no problem because the economy would always grow. Politicians encouraged the ME-MEs to buy more and more to keep the consumer-based economy rolling. Bankers already knew their profits depended upon how much DEBT they could create, and they found innovative ways (like gambling) to grow DEBT. Governments large and small joined in and became ME-MEs for their electorate.

The unimagined happened. The economy failed to grow at the pace it needed to. The housing bubble burst, markets tumbled, fuel costs rose, real estate values fell, and the ME-MEs could not keep up with their DEBT. The debt crisis spread, and politicians brewed and brewed  their magic, economists poured forth more explanations and suggestions, but the economy keeps getting worse. What has happened?

Prevailing economic theories are showing they do not work well when the economy is not growing, but rather it is deflating. Band-aids appear all over trying to get the economy back on track, even using DEBT to solve the DEBT crisis.

Seems to me we need some new economic theory, something that provides direction for how to run the economy in a time when growth does not happen, like when we suffer from Resource Depletion, specifically energy. One of the best recent discussions on this subject can be found on TheOilDrum in the post Hollow Men of Economics that posits "post-war economists don’t do energy, except as an ever-expanding resource that the credit system and technology makes available. For the post-war economist, the supply curve of energy–save for brief lags–is always coming back into rough equilibrium with the economy."

I recommend you continue your reading there and remember the Kitty-Cat, an economy with growing deflation and dwindling resources.

Sam Penny, the Prudent RVer

New Book - Climate Stabilization Targets

I received a reference from the World Future Society (http://www.wfs.org/) to a new book/report coming soon from National Academies Press entitled "Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia." I visited the site and found I could download a pre-publication PDF of the 190 page report detailing the expected impacts of climate change over the next century. It contains a wealth of graphs and charts with predictions of the effects with different scenarios of temperature increase, from 1C to 6C.

The authors of the report are the Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from the National Research Council. Their description reads

"Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe. Emissions reductions decisions made today matter in determining impacts experienced not just over the next few decades, but in the coming centuries and millennia.

"According to Climate Stabilization Targets; Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millenia, important policy decisions can be informed by recent advances in climate science that quantify the relationships between increases in carbon dioxide and global warming, related climate changes, and resulting impacts, such as changes in streamflow, wildfires, crop productivity, extreme hot summers, and sea level rise. One way to inform these choices is to consider the projected climate changes and impacts that would occur if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stabilized at a particular concentration level. The book quantifies the outcomes of different stabilization targets for greenhouse gas concentrations using analyses and information drawn from the scientific literature. Although it does not recommend or justify any particular stabilization target, it does provide important scientific insights about the relationships among emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and impacts.

"Climate Stabilization Targets emphasizes the importance of 21st century choices regarding long-term climate stabilization. It is a useful resource for scientists, educators and policy makers, among others."

I have only glanced through the PDF, mostly looking at their graphical data and reading a few explanatory notes. Since the PDF is free, I suggest you get a copy and keep it on hand. I think you will find a handy resource.

The climate "cat" just keeps growing and we can see more details of the spots on its paws, but society is largely ignoring the problem.

from Sam Penny, aka the Prudent RVer who sells LEDs for RVs and Boats

Long time no post! Are things any different?

Well, there is some progress on people beginning to recognize there is a problem, in fact, there are several problems.

They are still arguing if Peak Oil has/will happen. The IPCC issued its report and verified that we have an upcoming problem with climate change. The world's population continues to grow, and there are increasing worries about feeding everyone. And to top it off, the economy went into the toilet. Of course, there are some who now say it is recovering, but those without work don't see it that way. Maybe I should have said there were 4 cats stalking the human race.

I will be more proactive on this blog in the coming months. BTW, I do appreciate the comments that have come in on previous posts. I will try to put some more meat onto this skeleton so that there will be more to comment on.

Cheers,
Sam Penny