Life in an Exporting Nation

Comments on my previous post, Could things be worse than what we doomers thought?, expressed the opinion that exporting countries probably would not dry up within the decade, and that they would find a way to continue to import the luxury goods they could not produce themselves. Tom R pointed out that it might be riskier being a producer, what with the threats to their markets. Kevin wonders if there will be a "peak oil income" in those producer nations.

I had addressed the problem from a USA-centric point of view, for as one, two, or four of our major suppliers begin to fail in their "duty" to provide us with what we need, we may "suddenly" find ourselves coming up short on meeting our energy demand. The key element is the "suddenly," for so many of the authorities like CERA and NPC and EIA and IEA and EM have been espousing the opinion that we have lots of time before any of this becomes a problem. My son says technology and the market will lead us out of this tight spot, but I worry it may not happen soon enough, especially if the time remaining is even less than I had supposed before reading Jeffrey Brown's hypothesis. And the numbers I see indicate this shortage could happen as soon as five years from now, when the exporters reach the 50% level. I follow Murphy's laws, including "if it is going to happen, it will happen at the worst possible time."

But let's talk about the exporter-centric point of view.  Most of the exporting nations have little other resources than petroleum. Russia and Venezuela have some water, farmland, and other resources, but the Middle East producers have desert lands and exploding populations. Iran has been subsidizing their citizens with fuel to keep them happy, but they must import almost all their gasoline and food. I see the time when they cannot find enough energy to keep their populace happy, and then it will turn very ugly. Kevin is right to offer his sympathies. Only if the regime suppresses the population  will they be able to squeeze "more blood out of the turnip," aka oil out of the production grid, and send it to the USA.

One more thing. What do we have that the producers will want? Dollars? I don't think so, in fact, some are already saying no more dollars. We have food grains, and maybe some manufactured goods and technology, but we should be looking for some better product mix to trade for our energy supplies from abroad.

Whatever happens, it is going to be an interesting world, and I now expect it will start to happen during my lifetime, rather than after I have died and gone away. That is a sobering thought for a great-grandfather.

Sam Penny
the Prudent RVer