Treating Symptoms or Planning Futures

Notes on an alternate world, a World Without Oil.

Over the past 23 virtual weeks, we have been reacting to a crisis situation, struggling to survive, trying to make sense out of what has happened to us. We have learned a lot and shared stories and tips on what to do in a mess like this. We have been treating the symptoms of a catastrophic societal disease brought on by our earlier over-indulgences. But what is causing the disease?

Treating symptoms is a reaction, a response to a problem. It does not necessarily solve the problem. I compare this with my real life. When I get a chest pain, I take an aspirin and sit down to rest. I am treating the symptom. What is important is that when I get the chance (like now), I give priority to solving the problem that causes the situation in the first place. I know I need to lose weight and exercise, but what else?

The first step to a solution is to understand the problem. It would be nice if we could pinpoint just what thing created the crisis of a world without oil. I said earlier that what we are seeing is a supply disruption, but that is just another symptom. You have to go deeper to understand just what is happening, and from there, guess what will most probably happen in the future.

Unfortunately, there is a great deal of disagreement about what is happening today and what it means. The concept of peak resources and resource depletion was introduced many years ago, but it has not been a mainstream idea until recently -- and there are those who vehemently deny the possibility. Global warming has entered the fray, introducing new variables and stakes, and making the choices harder. A variety of theories about how economies work have been proposed, and the agreedto conclusion is changing even as we speak. We are living in a time of uncertainty, and it is hard to know what is the best way to turn -- or run.

I have long been a futurist, studying what might happen, reading about theories on the future, building scenarios, and writing books about potential disasters. Living in retirement in an RV has given me the chance to think long and hard about different issues facing our world, and the Internet has been a great tool for doing that. Finding the Energy Bulletin and World Without Oil have been a great help in my quest for understanding.

I still have much to study and to learn. I wish to share with you two of the more interesting articles I have found recently, because they pertain to understanding the problems we face.

The first article is called The Economy is an EcoSystem, by John Ryan of Sanders Research Associates. It is rather pedantic and a little hard to read, but don't let that deter you. It provides a wide-ranging view of just what our economy is and how it works. The article proposes that our economy is best described as a functioning ecosystem, not a monolithic structure of supply and demand. It attaches traits to what compels our society that so many of our business leaders and politicians do not see. Viewed as an ecosystem, it becomes apparent that certain things are vital to the survival of any economy, and that the economy must evolve to survive on an earth with a different level of fossil fuels. Many parts will remain similar, but some will change dramatically.

The other article is Global Warming Exaggerated- Insufficient Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal, by Professor Kjell Aleklett of Uppsala University in Sweden. The professor points out how the peak limitations on supplies for oil, natural gas, and coal may very well cap the CO2 emissions in the coming decades, and prevent the world from reaching the worst-case scenarios discussed by the UN's IPCC in their latest report on climate change. In fact, within the range of error, it is possible that even the best-case scenario is unachievable, there will simply not be enough energy for families to live frugally but as well as they would like. It is almost as if he is saying that the WWO we have been studying is inevitable.

[Sorry, this paragraph was left out in the original post. sjp] Though there is disagreement, everything points to the problem being centered on how to survive the change of our world from one devoted to unlimited growth to one with diminishing resources. The key problem has become how to survive this transformation.

 

My wife and I started planning for the future long ago. We chose the full-time RVing lifestyle because that allowed us to live frugally, unencumbered by chains to a fixed base. We reconditioned our rig with solar and LEDs and RO water so we could take up boondocking and live off the grid, independent from much of society's infrastructure (at least for a while). Now that the price of fuel is rising (and may rise much, much more), we are limiting (but not stopping) our travels. We are also walking more to stay in shape.

After glimpsing through the eyes of the WWO netizens what might come, I am adding to my list of alterations. I will get a little hand-crank washer and clothesline. Even now, we can limit our use of coin-operated washers and driers. We can add to our solar panels and batteries. We need a solar oven.

Hate to say it, but I might purchase a firearm. Sounds like many netizens expect there could be some kind of civil unrest, so self-protection seems a good idea. I think I should possibly get a short barrel pump shotgun. Just the sound of cocking it can scare the daylights out of someone, even me.

Even though we travel around, we could maintain a small garden of herbs in small flower pots. I can also put away a stock of vegetable seeds for when we land long enough to do a garden. Kept in a sealed, dry, dark environment, seeds will last for years.

We have agreed that when grocery shopping, our first stop of choice should be the farmer's markets. We will fill up on local vegies before we go off to the nationwide chain supermarket. Good to start the habit now, and to support those local farmers. Also, we will carry our purchases in our own cloth bags -- reusable and non-polluting, no more paper or plastic.

While decent supplies last, we can go to garage sales and thrift shops to find clothes. Better to get more use out of a piece of clothing than spend the carbon creating something new. I tell my wife, "One woman's junk is another woman's treasure."

I am sure there are more things I can do to plan for the future. At least it is more fun than treating symptoms.

Sam
the Prudent RVer

Comments

[Sam]

I can only tell my wife something; that is no guarantee that she agrees.

On the matter of perceiving the future, I have found that people expect things to remain as they are today, and they often go into a state of denial when faced with change. They simply do not want to think.

My point is that engaging in a game such as World Without Oil has both required and allowed us to think of the future, and in doing so created a learning experience for us. Now we can take advantage of that new knowledge to plan for the future. Now we can better understand what the consequences are, and we can break with the past.

Question: if two monkeys are facing each other, both with their paws stuck in a gourd, and one sees the other clubbed to death because he could/would not run away, will the monkey realize the futility of continuing to want the morsel inside and let go and save himself? What about you?

Sam

[IllianaSpeedster]

I tell my wife, "One woman's junk is another woman's treasure."

haha, does she buy that one? :)

[Gala_Teah]

What thing created this crisis? I think it was a sort of collective inability to consider all possible futures. We tend to think that tomorrow will be a lot like today, because today was a lot like yesterday, and yesterday a lot like the day before, and so on. But if you look ahead, and see that a change is coming, you have to recognize and act on that perception.

The classic story about this is the monkey paw trap - the trap being an anchored gourd with a fruit inside, and a hole big enough for a monkey's hand to enter, but too small for the monkey's hand clutching fruit to exit. The trap depends on the monkey not realizing that what seemed to be a path to prosperity had turned into a death trap. That seems to be the situation we were in.

[Tomas L. Martin (Mia)]

Your diaries continue to be an excellent source of ideas and optimism. thank you.