Notes on an alternate world, a World Without Oil
I noticed the price of fuel has been fairly constant over the past few weeks in this World Without Oil. I know there has been a lot of demand destruction, and I expect prices will fall as some order is restored to the supply chain, but I surely don't foresee that it will go back to where it was before.
There are still fuel shortages, and those will continue. The shortage in the world market of energy supplies is a solid fact and will not go away, it will only get worse. In fact, the next step is allocation of resources. The government must ensure fuel for emergency services, public transportation, farmers, freight transporters, and electrical generation. That leaves the Sunday driver, RVer, and commuter at the short end of the stick. I am not sure how the bureaucrats will do it, probably some kind of rationing like we had sixty years ago during WWII.
By now most people should realize that the era of a growth economy is over. Yes, there will be a few new innovative industries that get started, but those will only be replacing old industries that are dying. Autos is a good example. I have seen ads where people are offering to pay you to tow away their three-year-old SUV (of course, you get to take over their payments, too). Guzzlers are out, but it is hard to find a really high-mileage vehicle that runs on alternative fuel. They are in short supply, and the only auto industry that will grow is one producing that kind of car.
Unfortunately, the Far East is our primary supplier of efficient cars, and they are having more and more problems just like we are. Too bad we could not convince Detroit's Big Three to convert to the small, efficient format. Now, that area has the highest unemployment rate in the country.
Our country is going to have to get along with the housing we have. Forget the new home sales, they are not building any more, and if you have a big house, forget getting your investment out of it. In fact, most people who want to sell their home now cannot find a buyer unless they lower their price far below their equity. That leaves them saddled with a big hunk of debt from the bank or whoever holds the mortgage.
CD and DVD sales have plummeted (Internet piracy has sky-rocketed), and the TV, movie, and music industries have almost died. Oh yes, the younger set would really like to have the latest recording or see the latest movie, but their parents have clamped down -- no more money. There are still lots of performers doing their thing, sometimes on the sidewalks with a hat in front of them for tips. But then, only a few of them ever got much in the way of royalties anyway.
Information Technology continues, mainly because of the installed base and the utter dependency so much of our society has on it. But plans for expansion have been shelved. As a result, the electronics equipment industry has laid off over half of their staff. Silicon Valley has entered another bust, and this time there may not be a boom to follow.
Industrial farming is continuing, but it is having major problems getting the water, fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides it has been addicted to. In fact, some studies are finding out it is more productive and less consuming to return to the smaller, old-style farming like done on the family farms many years ago. That with the increased urban gardening may be able to supply food for the whole population, at least for a while.
One casualty of all this is the meat industry: beef, hogs, chickens, turkeys. First, the rampant conversion from feedstocks to ethanol and biodiesel production so restricted the supply of animal grains that many of the farmers simply sold their livestock. Then the transport limitations cut even deeper. Now the price of meat is so high it is always a luxury, and people are not buying much in the way of luxuries these days. Macaroni and cheese is just fine.
Milk is gone. Dairies have been suffering the same food supply problems as the feedlots, and with the unreliability of the transports, milk has spoiled waiting to be delivered. What has grown is the cheese industry, since they can keep the cheese for much longer, and it does not require so much refrigeration.
So what is left? Well, we still need food and water. We still need an infrastructure to dispose of our wastes. From time to time we still need replacement clothes. But we can watch our old TV for entertainment, or download an old song from the Internet, or just sit in the back yard and enjoy the sunset. We don't have to fly to Jamacia for vacation. We don't have to drive four blocks to pick up the kids at school. We don't have to continually grow.
It will be a different world, but by balancing our resources and making use of renewables, we can sustain our life for a long time. Learn to like it; that's the future.
Sam
the Prudent RVer
